Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Fenerbahce
82%
Draw
12%
Eyupspor
6%
Actual result: Fenerbahce 8 – 0 Eyupspor · Fenerbahce winJarvis gave this outcome: 82% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fenerbahce, negative favours Eyupspor) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Fenerbahce - Eyupspor)+2.12
Expected total goals3.32
Expected goals Fenerbahce / Eyupspor2.72 / 0.60
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.6% / 58.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.0%
Over 2.5 goals 64.4%
Over 3.5 goals 42.4%
First half
First-half result (Fenerbahce / draw / Eyupspor)61.9% / 29.5% / 8.6%
A goal in the first half78.0%
Two or more in the first half43.5%
Half-time then full-time
Fenerbahce lead at half-time then Fenerbahce win59.0%
Level at half-time then Fenerbahce win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw7.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Fenerbahce's side
Fenerbahce −2.050.3%
Fenerbahce −1.7555.9%
Fenerbahce −1.561.5%
Fenerbahce −1.2566.7%
Fenerbahce −1.071.9%
Fenerbahce −0.7577.1%
Fenerbahce −0.582.3%
Fenerbahce −0.2585.1%
Fenerbahce draw no bet (0.0)88.0%
Fenerbahce +0.2590.9%
Fenerbahce +0.593.8%
Fenerbahce +0.7595.1%
Fenerbahce +1.096.3%
Fenerbahce +1.598.7%
Fenerbahce +2.099.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Fenerbahce win1.22
Draw8.63
Eyupspor win16.22
Over 2.51.55
Under 2.52.81
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Fenerbahce wins by more than 1 goals61%
Eyupspor wins by more than 1 goals1%