UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Fenerbahce vs Gornik Zabrze prediction

Fenerbahce

1 – 0

Full-time

Gornik Zabrze

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Fenerbahce

83%

Draw

11%

Gornik Zabrze

Actual result: Fenerbahce 1 – 0 Gornik Zabrze · Fenerbahce winJarvis gave this outcome: 83% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fenerbahce, negative favours Gornik Zabrze) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Fenerbahce - Gornik Zabrze)+2.23

Expected total goals3.40

Expected goals Fenerbahce / Gornik Zabrze2.81 / 0.58

Both teams to score (yes / no)41.3% / 58.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 85.0%

Over 2.5 goals 65.9%

Over 3.5 goals 44.1%

First half

First-half result (Fenerbahce / draw / Gornik Zabrze)63.2% / 28.9% / 7.9%

A goal in the first half78.6%

Two or more in the first half44.8%

Half-time then full-time

Fenerbahce lead at half-time then Fenerbahce win60.5%

Level at half-time then Fenerbahce win19.9%

Level at half-time then draw6.8%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Fenerbahce's side

Fenerbahce −2.052.6%

Fenerbahce −1.7558.1%

Fenerbahce −1.563.7%

Fenerbahce −1.2568.6%

Fenerbahce −1.073.6%

Fenerbahce −0.7578.5%

Fenerbahce −0.583.5%

Fenerbahce −0.2586.3%

Fenerbahce draw no bet (0.0)89.0%

Fenerbahce +0.2591.8%

Fenerbahce +0.594.6%

Fenerbahce +0.7595.6%

Fenerbahce +1.096.7%

Fenerbahce +1.598.9%

Fenerbahce +2.099.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Fenerbahce win1.20

Draw9.03

Gornik Zabrze win18.42

Over 2.51.52

Under 2.52.94

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Fenerbahce wins by more than 1 goals64%

Gornik Zabrze wins by more than 1 goals1%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match