Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Finland
39%
Draw
32%
Albania
28%
Actual result: Finland 2 – 1 Albania · Finland winJarvis gave this outcome: 39% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Finland, negative favours Albania) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Finland - Albania)+0.21
Expected total goals2.10
Expected goals Finland / Albania1.15 / 0.94
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.0% / 57.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 63.2%
Over 2.5 goals 34.9%
Over 3.5 goals 16.1%
First half
First-half result (Finland / draw / Albania)28.5% / 49.6% / 21.9%
A goal in the first half60.3%
Two or more in the first half25.1%
Half-time then full-time
Finland lead at half-time then Finland win23.0%
Level at half-time then draw22.2%
Albania lead at half-time then Albania win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Finland's side
Finland −2.011.3%
Finland −1.7514.2%
Finland −1.517.1%
Finland −1.2522.7%
Finland −1.028.3%
Finland −0.7533.8%
Finland −0.539.4%
Finland −0.2547.4%
Finland draw no bet (0.0)55.5%
Finland +0.2563.5%
Finland +0.571.6%
Finland +0.7576.1%
Finland +1.080.5%
Finland +1.589.5%
Finland +2.093.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Finland win2.54
Draw3.10
Albania win3.52
Over 2.52.86
Under 2.51.54
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Finland wins by more than 1 goals17%
Albania wins by more than 1 goals11%