Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Finland
61%
Draw
26%
Belarus
14%
Actual result: Finland 0 – 0 Belarus · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Finland, negative favours Belarus) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Finland - Belarus)+0.98
Expected total goals2.24
Expected goals Finland / Belarus1.61 / 0.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)37.9% / 62.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.0%
Over 2.5 goals 38.7%
Over 3.5 goals 18.8%
First half
First-half result (Finland / draw / Belarus)42.1% / 45.2% / 12.8%
A goal in the first half63.1%
Two or more in the first half27.1%
Half-time then full-time
Finland lead at half-time then Finland win38.0%
Level at half-time then Finland win21.1%
Level at half-time then draw18.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Finland's side
Finland −2.024.2%
Finland −1.7529.0%
Finland −1.533.7%
Finland −1.2540.5%
Finland −1.047.2%
Finland −0.7553.9%
Finland −0.560.6%
Finland −0.2567.0%
Finland draw no bet (0.0)73.4%
Finland +0.2579.9%
Finland +0.586.3%
Finland +0.7588.8%
Finland +1.091.3%
Finland +1.596.4%
Finland +2.097.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Finland win1.65
Draw3.90
Belarus win7.28
Over 2.52.58
Under 2.51.63
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Finland wins by more than 1 goals34%
Belarus wins by more than 1 goals4%