Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Fiorentina
71%
Draw
19%
Pisa
11%
Actual result: Fiorentina 3 – 0 Pisa · Fiorentina winJarvis gave this outcome: 71% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fiorentina, negative favours Pisa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Fiorentina - Pisa)+1.49
Expected total goals2.98
Expected goals Fiorentina / Pisa2.23 / 0.75
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.5% / 52.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.2%
Over 2.5 goals 57.3%
Over 3.5 goals 34.9%
First half
First-half result (Fiorentina / draw / Pisa)51.6% / 36.6% / 11.8%
A goal in the first half73.4%
Two or more in the first half39.2%
Half-time then full-time
Fiorentina lead at half-time then Fiorentina win47.6%
Level at half-time then Fiorentina win20.7%
Level at half-time then draw11.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Fiorentina's side
Fiorentina −2.036.7%
Fiorentina −1.7542.0%
Fiorentina −1.547.3%
Fiorentina −1.2553.2%
Fiorentina −1.059.1%
Fiorentina −0.7564.9%
Fiorentina −0.570.8%
Fiorentina −0.2575.4%
Fiorentina draw no bet (0.0)80.1%
Fiorentina +0.2584.7%
Fiorentina +0.589.4%
Fiorentina +0.7591.3%
Fiorentina +1.093.2%
Fiorentina +1.597.0%
Fiorentina +2.098.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Fiorentina win1.41
Draw5.36
Pisa win9.43
Over 2.51.75
Under 2.52.34
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Fiorentina wins by more than 1 goals47%
Pisa wins by more than 1 goals3%