Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Flamengo
77%
Draw
16%
Corinthians
7%
Actual result: Flamengo 2 – 1 Corinthians · Flamengo winJarvis gave this outcome: 77% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Flamengo, negative favours Corinthians) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Flamengo - Corinthians)+1.78
Expected total goals2.85
Expected goals Flamengo / Corinthians2.31 / 0.54
Both teams to score (yes / no)37.7% / 62.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.1%
Over 2.5 goals 54.2%
Over 3.5 goals 31.9%
First half
First-half result (Flamengo / draw / Corinthians)55.9% / 36.0% / 8.1%
A goal in the first half71.8%
Two or more in the first half37.1%
Half-time then full-time
Flamengo lead at half-time then Flamengo win53.1%
Level at half-time then Flamengo win22.2%
Level at half-time then draw10.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Flamengo's side
Flamengo −2.042.5%
Flamengo −1.7548.2%
Flamengo −1.554.0%
Flamengo −1.2559.8%
Flamengo −1.065.6%
Flamengo −0.7571.4%
Flamengo −0.577.1%
Flamengo −0.2581.2%
Flamengo draw no bet (0.0)85.3%
Flamengo +0.2589.4%
Flamengo +0.593.5%
Flamengo +0.7594.8%
Flamengo +1.096.0%
Flamengo +1.598.5%
Flamengo +2.099.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Flamengo win1.30
Draw6.12
Corinthians win15.38
Over 2.51.85
Under 2.52.18
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Flamengo wins by more than 1 goals54%
Corinthians wins by more than 1 goals1%