Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Fortuna Sittard
12%
Draw
18%
Ajax
69%
Actual result: Fortuna Sittard 1 – 5 Ajax · Ajax winJarvis gave this outcome: 69% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fortuna Sittard, negative favours Ajax) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Fortuna Sittard - Ajax)-1.49
Expected total goals3.46
Expected goals Fortuna Sittard / Ajax0.99 / 2.48
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.1% / 41.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.7%
Over 2.5 goals 67.2%
Over 3.5 goals 45.5%
First half
First-half result (Fortuna Sittard / draw / Ajax)13.7% / 34.7% / 51.6%
A goal in the first half78.0%
Two or more in the first half47.1%
Half-time then full-time
Ajax lead at half-time then Ajax win47.1%
Level at half-time then Ajax win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw10.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Fortuna Sittard's side
Fortuna Sittard −2.02.7%
Fortuna Sittard −1.753.5%
Fortuna Sittard −1.54.3%
Fortuna Sittard −1.256.4%
Fortuna Sittard −1.08.4%
Fortuna Sittard −0.7510.4%
Fortuna Sittard −0.512.4%
Fortuna Sittard −0.2517.0%
Fortuna Sittard draw no bet (0.0)21.6%
Fortuna Sittard +0.2526.1%
Fortuna Sittard +0.530.7%
Fortuna Sittard +0.7536.0%
Fortuna Sittard +1.041.4%
Fortuna Sittard +1.552.0%
Fortuna Sittard +2.062.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Fortuna Sittard win8.06
Draw5.46
Ajax win1.44
Over 2.51.49
Under 2.53.05
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Fortuna Sittard wins by more than 1 goals4%
Ajax wins by more than 1 goals48%