FIFA World Cup
France vs England prediction
France
4 – 6
Full-time
England
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
France
52%
Draw
24%
England
24%
Actual result: France 4 – 6 England · England winJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours France, negative favours England) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (France - England)+0.67
Expected total goals3.29
Expected goals France / England1.98 / 1.31
Both teams to score (yes / no)64.3% / 35.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.3%
Over 2.5 goals 63.9%
Over 3.5 goals 41.8%
First half
First-half result (France / draw / England)39.1% / 39.6% / 21.3%
A goal in the first half75.6%
Two or more in the first half45.2%
Half-time then full-time
France ahead then France win32.8%
level then France win16.7%
level then draw14.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from France
France give 2 trái (−2.0)22.9%
France give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)26.9%
France give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)31.0%
France give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)36.2%
France give 1 trái (−1.0)41.4%
France give 3/4 trái (−0.75)46.6%
France give nửa trái (−0.5)51.7%
France give 1/4 trái (−0.25)57.8%
Level ball (0.0)63.9%
France receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)70.0%
France receive nửa trái (+0.5)76.1%
France receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)79.5%
France receive 1 trái (+1.0)82.8%
France receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)89.4%
France receive 2 trái (+2.0)92.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
France win1.93
Draw4.10
England win4.19
Over 2.51.57
Under 2.52.77
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
France wins by more than 1 goals31%
England wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards2.2
2.5+ cards in the match37%