Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
France
67%
Draw
19%
Italy
13%
Actual result: France 1 – 1 Italy · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 19%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours France, negative favours Italy) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (France - Italy)+1.36
Expected total goals3.23
Expected goals France / Italy2.29 / 0.94
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.3% / 44.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.9%
Over 2.5 goals 62.6%
Over 3.5 goals 40.4%
First half
First-half result (France / draw / Italy)49.7% / 36.2% / 14.2%
A goal in the first half75.9%
Two or more in the first half43.4%
Half-time then full-time
France lead at half-time then France win45.0%
Level at half-time then France win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw11.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from France's side
France −2.034.8%
France −1.7539.8%
France −1.544.8%
France −1.2550.4%
France −1.056.0%
France −0.7561.6%
France −0.567.2%
France −0.2572.1%
France draw no bet (0.0)77.0%
France +0.2581.8%
France +0.586.7%
France +0.7588.9%
France +1.091.1%
France +1.595.5%
France +2.097.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
France win1.49
Draw5.13
Italy win7.53
Over 2.51.60
Under 2.52.68
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
France wins by more than 1 goals45%
Italy wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match40%