Quick preview
Freiburg meet FK Jablonec in the UEFA Conference League, kick-off 02:00 on 16/10 (GMT+7). Jarvis gives Freiburg a 81% chance to win, 13% for a draw and 6% for FK Jablonec; the score Jarvis predicts is 2-0. Jarvis expects 3.0 goals in the match: both teams score with 37%, 3 or more goals with 58%.
Outcome probability
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Probability trajectory
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec lineups
FreiburgFormation 4-2-3-1| 1 | Mio Backhaus | GK |
| 17 | Lukas Kubler | DF |
| 28 | Matthias Ginter | DF |
| 37 | Maximilian Rosenfelder | DF |
| 30 | Christian Gunter | DF |
| 8 | Maximilian Eggestein | MF |
| 6 | Patrick Osterhage | MF |
| 22 | Cyriaque Irie | MF |
| 14 | Yuito Suzuki | MF |
| 32 | Vincenzo Grifo | MF |
| 9 | Lucas Holer | FW |
| 21 | Florian Muller | GK |
| 24 | Jannik Huth | GK |
| 3 | Philipp Lienhart | DF |
| 5 | Anthony Jung | DF |
| 29 | Philipp Treu | DF |
| 33 | Jordy Makengo | DF |
| 16 | Yannick Engelhardt | MF |
| 20 | Rihito Yamamoto | MF |
| 31 | Igor Matanovic | FW |
| 40 | Mateo Zelic | FW |
| 42 | Keisuke Goto | FW |
| 1 | Jan Hanus | GK |
| 18 | Martin Cedidla | DF |
| 4 | Nemanja Tekijaski | DF |
| 15 | Dusan Pavlovic | DF |
| 20 | Jiri Slama | DF |
| 13 | Richard Sedlacek | MF |
| 6 | Nelson Okeke | MF |
| 7 | Vakhtang Chanturishvili | MF |
| 17 | Saidou Alioum Moubarak | MF |
| 21 | Matej Polidar | MF |
| 9 | Antonin Rusek | FW |
| 99 | Klemen Mihelak | GK |
| 31 | Evzen Maly | DF |
| 57 | Filip Novak | DF |
| 8 | Filip Zorvan | MF |
| 12 | David Nykrin | DF |
| 14 | Daniel Soucek | DF |
| 24 | Dominik Holly | MF |
| 25 | Sebastian Nebyla | MF |
| 19 | Jan Chramosta | FW |
| 36 | Garang Kuol | MF |
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec team form
FreiburgWWDWW| 11/10/2026 | FC Schalke 04 (home) | 2–1 |
| 03/10/2026 | FC Luzern (home) | 4–2 |
| 19/09/2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (away) | 2–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Borussia Monchengladbach (home) | 5–0 |
| 05/09/2026 | SC Paderborn 07 (away) | 1–0 |
| 10/10/2026 | Zbrojovka Brno (away) | 1–0 |
| 02/10/2026 | Dukla Praha (away) | 1–0 |
| 20/09/2026 | Zlin (home) | 1–1 |
| 12/09/2026 | Sparta Praha (away) | 0–2 |
| 09/09/2026 | Banik Ostrava (home) | 3–0 |
Match information
- Referee
- E. Malcevs
- Venue
- Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
- Round
- 1
Other matches on 16/10 (GMT+7)
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht02:00 · Europa League48% / 27% / 25%
- Hoffenheim vs Besiktas02:00 · Europa League50% / 25% / 26%
- Jagiellonia Bialystock vs Ararat Armenia02:00 · Europa League67% / 20% / 13%
- Benfica vs Celtic02:00 · Europa League81% / 12% / 7%
- Ferencvaros vs Plzen02:00 · Europa League49% / 25% / 26%
- Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz02:00 · Europa League84% / 11% / 5%
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.