Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Atalanta
72%
Draw
18%
Pafos FC
10%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atalanta, negative favours Pafos FC) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Atalanta - Pafos FC)+1.55
Expected total goals3.04
Expected goals Atalanta / Pafos FC2.30 / 0.74
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.6% / 52.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.1%
Over 2.5 goals 58.7%
Over 3.5 goals 36.3%
First half
First-half result (Atalanta / draw / Pafos FC)52.7% / 35.8% / 11.5%
A goal in the first half74.2%
Two or more in the first half40.1%
Half-time then full-time
Atalanta lead at half-time then Atalanta win48.8%
Level at half-time then Atalanta win20.7%
Level at half-time then draw10.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Atalanta's side
Atalanta −2.038.2%
Atalanta −1.7543.6%
Atalanta −1.549.0%
Atalanta −1.2554.7%
Atalanta −1.060.5%
Atalanta −0.7566.3%
Atalanta −0.572.1%
Atalanta −0.2576.5%
Atalanta draw no bet (0.0)81.0%
Atalanta +0.2585.4%
Atalanta +0.589.9%
Atalanta +0.7591.7%
Atalanta +1.093.5%
Atalanta +1.597.1%
Atalanta +2.098.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Atalanta win1.39
Draw5.61
Pafos FC win9.90
Over 2.51.70
Under 2.52.42
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Atalanta wins by more than 1 goals49%
Pafos FC wins by more than 1 goals3%
Probability trajectory
Atalanta vs Pafos FC team form
AtalantaWLLLW| 12/10/2026 | Venezia (home) | 3–1 |
| 20/09/2026 | Juventus (away) | 0–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Cagliari (home) | 1–2 |
| 05/09/2026 | AS Roma (away) | 1–2 |
| 31/08/2026 | Bologna (home) | 1–0 |
Pafos FCWLWDW| 11/10/2026 | Anorthosis (away) | 3–1 |
| 18/09/2026 | AEL (home) | 0–2 |
| 13/09/2026 | AEK Larnaca (away) | 1–0 |
| 07/09/2026 | Olympiakos (home) | 0–0 |
| 03/09/2026 | Omonia Nicosia (away) | 1–0 |
Match information
- Referee
- A. Ladeback
- Venue
- New Balance Arena, Bergamo
- Round
- 1