Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Benfica
78%
Draw
13%
Celtic
8%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Benfica, negative favours Celtic) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Benfica - Celtic)+1.98
Expected total goals3.64
Expected goals Benfica / Celtic2.81 / 0.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.9% / 47.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 87.8%
Over 2.5 goals 70.4%
Over 3.5 goals 49.3%
First half
First-half result (Benfica / draw / Celtic)59.5% / 29.6% / 11.0%
A goal in the first half80.7%
Two or more in the first half48.6%
Half-time then full-time
Benfica lead at half-time then Benfica win55.7%
Level at half-time then Benfica win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw7.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Benfica's side
Benfica −2.047.7%
Benfica −1.7553.0%
Benfica −1.558.3%
Benfica −1.2563.3%
Benfica −1.068.4%
Benfica −0.7573.4%
Benfica −0.578.4%
Benfica −0.2581.7%
Benfica draw no bet (0.0)85.0%
Benfica +0.2588.3%
Benfica +0.591.7%
Benfica +0.7593.2%
Benfica +1.094.6%
Benfica +1.597.6%
Benfica +2.098.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Benfica win1.28
Draw7.55
Celtic win11.99
Over 2.51.42
Under 2.53.38
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Benfica wins by more than 1 goals58%
Celtic wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners10.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%
Probability trajectory
Benfica vs Celtic injury report and team news
Benfica- D. BanjaquiOut · Muscle Injury
- E. BarrenecheaOut · Injury
- J. KaminskiOut · Muscle Injury
Celtic- A. JohnstonOut · Leg Injury
- C. OsmandOut · Ankle Injury
- Yang Hyun-JunOut · Hamstring Injury
- C. Carter-VickersDoubtful · Health problems
Benfica vs Celtic team form
BenficaWLWWW| 11/10/2026 | Vitoria SC (home) | 2–0 |
| 20/09/2026 | FC Porto (away) | 1–3 |
| 16/09/2026 | AC Milan (away) | 2–0 |
| 13/09/2026 | GIL Vicente (home) | 3–1 |
| 09/09/2026 | Moreirense (away) | 4–0 |
CelticWLLLW| 11/10/2026 | Motherwell (away) | 2–0 |
| 20/09/2026 | Rangers (home) | 0–1 |
| 17/09/2026 | Ferencvarosi TC (home) | 1–3 |
| 13/09/2026 | Rangers (away) | 0–3 |
| 09/09/2026 | ST Johnstone (away) | 1–0 |
Benfica vs Celtic head to head (H2H)
Head to head record, last 2 meetings: Benfica won 1, drew 1, lost 0. Benfica scored 2 and conceded 1 goals.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2012 | Benfica | 2–1 | Celtic |
| 19/09/2012 | Celtic | 0–0 | Benfica |
Match information
- Referee
- Nikola Dabanovic
- Venue
- Estadio da Luz, Lisbon
- Round
- 2