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Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction

Bournemouth
02:00, 16/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
Sturm Graz

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Bournemouth
82%
Draw
12%
Sturm Graz
6%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bournemouth, negative favours Sturm Graz) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bournemouth - Sturm Graz)+2.21
Expected total goals3.65
Expected goals Bournemouth / Sturm Graz2.93 / 0.72
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.8% / 51.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 88.0%
Over 2.5 goals 70.6%
Over 3.5 goals 49.6%
First half
First-half result (Bournemouth / draw / Sturm Graz)62.3% / 28.9% / 8.9%
A goal in the first half80.5%
Two or more in the first half49.0%
Half-time then full-time
Bournemouth lead at half-time then Bournemouth win59.3%
Level at half-time then Bournemouth win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw6.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bournemouth's side
Bournemouth −2.052.2%
Bournemouth −1.7557.5%
Bournemouth −1.562.9%
Bournemouth −1.2567.6%
Bournemouth −1.072.4%
Bournemouth −0.7577.1%
Bournemouth −0.581.8%
Bournemouth −0.2584.8%
Bournemouth draw no bet (0.0)87.8%
Bournemouth +0.2590.8%
Bournemouth +0.593.8%
Bournemouth +0.7594.9%
Bournemouth +1.096.1%
Bournemouth +1.598.4%
Bournemouth +2.099.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Bournemouth win1.22
Draw8.35
Sturm Graz win16.11
Over 2.51.42
Under 2.53.40

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Bournemouth wins by more than 1 goals63%
Sturm Graz wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.9
2.5+ cards in the match55%

Probability trajectory

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz injury report and team news

Bournemouth
  • J. AraujoOut · Thigh Injury
  • E. J. KroupiOut · Foot Injury
  • A. ScottOut · Thigh Injury
  • A. AdliDoubtful · Calf Injury
  • J. KluivertDoubtful · Muscle Injury
  • V. MilosavljevicDoubtful · Injury
Sturm Graz
  • L. GrgicOut · Knee Injury
  • S. JattaOut · Shoulder Injury
  • O. KiteishviliOut · Calf Injury
  • G. MamageishviliOut · Injury
  • F. RozgaOut · Muscle Injury
  • E. SogloOut · Muscle Injury
  • N. WeiperOut · Injury
  • A. VallciDoubtful · Injury

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz team form

BournemouthLLWDW
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Chelsea (away)1–5
20/09/2026Liverpool (home)0–1
17/09/2026Real Sociedad (away)2–1
12/09/2026Brentford (home)2–2
08/09/2026Lincoln (home)4–0
Sturm GrazWWLDW
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Austria Vienna (away)2–0
02/10/2026Floridsdorfer AC (home)3–1
20/09/2026Red Bull Salzburg (away)0–3
16/09/2026Rennes (home)0–0
13/09/2026Lask Linz (home)2–1

Match information

Referee
Jerome Brisard
Venue
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Round
2