UEFA Europa League
Jagiellonia Bialystock vs Ararat Armenia prediction
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Jagiellonia Bialystock meet Ararat Armenia in the Europa League, kick-off 02:00 on 16/10 (GMT+7). Jarvis gives Jagiellonia Bialystock a 67% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 13% for Ararat Armenia; the score Jarvis predicts is 2-0. Jarvis expects 3.1 goals in the match: both teams score with 53%, 3 or more goals with 60%.
Outcome probability
Updating live as the match unfolds
LiveOffline
Jagiellonia Bialystock
67%
Draw
20%
Ararat Armenia
13%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Jagiellonia Bialystock, negative favours Ararat Armenia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Jagiellonia Bialystock - Ararat Armenia)+1.34
Expected total goals3.11
Expected goals Jagiellonia Bialystock / Ararat Armenia2.22 / 0.88
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.8% / 47.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.1%
Over 2.5 goals 60.0%
Over 3.5 goals 37.7%
First half
First-half result (Jagiellonia Bialystock / draw / Ararat Armenia)49.5% / 36.6% / 13.9%
A goal in the first half74.8%
Two or more in the first half41.3%
Half-time then full-time
Jagiellonia Bialystock lead at half-time then Jagiellonia Bialystock win44.9%
Level at half-time then Jagiellonia Bialystock win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw11.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Jagiellonia Bialystock's side
Jagiellonia Bialystock −2.034.1%
Jagiellonia Bialystock −1.7539.2%
Jagiellonia Bialystock −1.544.3%
Jagiellonia Bialystock −1.2550.1%
Jagiellonia Bialystock −1.055.8%
Jagiellonia Bialystock −0.7561.6%
Jagiellonia Bialystock −0.567.3%
Jagiellonia Bialystock −0.2572.2%
Jagiellonia Bialystock draw no bet (0.0)77.1%
Jagiellonia Bialystock +0.2582.0%
Jagiellonia Bialystock +0.586.9%
Jagiellonia Bialystock +0.7589.1%
Jagiellonia Bialystock +1.091.3%
Jagiellonia Bialystock +1.595.8%
Jagiellonia Bialystock +2.097.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Jagiellonia Bialystock win1.49
Draw5.11
Ararat Armenia win7.63
Over 2.51.67
Under 2.52.50
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Jagiellonia Bialystock wins by more than 1 goals44%
Ararat Armenia wins by more than 1 goals4%
Probability trajectory
Match statistics
Jagiellonia BialystockArarat Armenia
19Possession81
0Expected goals (xG)0
0Total shots0
0Shots on target0
0Corners0
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
Jagiellonia Bialystock vs Ararat Armenia lineups
Jagiellonia BialystockFormation 4-3-3Coach: A. Siemieniec
| 50 | S. Abramowicz | GK |
| 27 | Rodrigo Conceicao | DF |
| 5 | Bernardo Vital | DF |
| 4 | Y. Kobayashi | DF |
| 20 | B. Wdowik | DF |
| 19 | A. Klynge | MF |
| 6 | T. Romanczuk | MF |
| 11 | Jesus Imaz | MF |
| 72 | K. Jozwiak | FW |
| 30 | O. Sow | FW |
| 7 | K. Szmyt | FW |
| 10 | J. Agbonifo | FW |
| 32 | A. Cirkovic | FW |
| 14 | H. Finndell | MF |
| 44 | A. Konstantopoulos | DF |
| 21 | Sergio Lozano | MF |
| 23 | Guilherme Manuel Serrao Montoia | DF |
| 1 | M. Perchel | GK |
| 3 | D. Stojinovic | DF |
| 85 | Eryk Kozlowski | MF |
Ararat ArmeniaFormation 4-3-3Coach: Tulipa
| 98 | Joao Bravim | GK |
| 2 | Hugo Oliveira | DF |
| 43 | Bruno Wilson | DF |
| 5 | Luis Felipe | DF |
| 16 | E. Grigoryan | DF |
| 8 | J. Balanta | MF |
| 17 | M. Carlier | MF |
| 20 | A. Tera | MF |
| 77 | A. Serobyan | FW |
| 91 | Sandro Lima | FW |
| 11 | Zidane Banjaqui | FW |
| 10 | A. Ambartsumyan | MF |
| 7 | Z. Shaghoyan | FW |
| 14 | Bruno Pereira | DF |
| 25 | A. Ndour | FW |
| 19 | K. Muradyan | MF |
| 47 | A. Malis | DF |
| 95 | Franca | FW |
| 9 | A. Eloyan | MF |
| 70 | Bernardo Oliveira Dias | MF |
| 1 | A. Nersesyan | GK |
Jagiellonia Bialystock vs Ararat Armenia team form
Jagiellonia BialystockLLWLL| 10/10/2026 | Gornik Zabrze (home) | 1–3 |
| 03/10/2026 | Polonia Warszawa (home) | 1–2 |
| 29/09/2026 | Suduva Marijampole (home) | 5–0 |
| 20/09/2026 | Legia Warszawa (home) | 1–3 |
| 16/09/2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus (away) | 1–2 |
Ararat ArmeniaDWWLW| 10/10/2026 | Alashkert (home) | 1–1 |
| 03/10/2026 | Ararat (away) | 4–0 |
| 20/09/2026 | Shirak (away) | 3–1 |
| 16/09/2026 | Sparta Praha (home) | 1–4 |
| 11/09/2026 | Syunik (home) | 3–0 |
Match information
- Referee
- Anastasios Papapetrou
- Venue
- Stadion Miejski w Bialymstoku, Bialystok
- Round
- 2
Next fixtures of both teams
- vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (away)Fri 16/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 13% / 20% / 67%
- vs AZ AlkmaarThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
Other matches on 16/10 (GMT+7)
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht02:00 · Europa League48% / 27% / 25%
- Hoffenheim vs Besiktas02:00 · Europa League50% / 25% / 26%
- Benfica vs Celtic02:00 · Europa League81% / 12% / 7%
- Ferencvaros vs Plzen02:00 · Europa League49% / 25% / 26%
- Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz02:00 · Europa League84% / 11% / 5%
- Marseille vs Olympiakos02:00 · Europa League40% / 29% / 31%
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.
Europa League table, latest
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Lyon | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| ... | ||||
| 31 | Marseille | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Viktoria Plzen | 1 | -3 | 0 |