Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Fulham
44%
Draw
30%
Crystal Palace
26%
Actual result: Fulham 2 – 3 Crystal Palace · Crystal Palace winJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fulham, negative favours Crystal Palace) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Fulham - Crystal Palace)+0.38
Expected total goals2.49
Expected goals Fulham / Crystal Palace1.44 / 1.05
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.5% / 48.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.9%
Over 2.5 goals 45.4%
Over 3.5 goals 24.0%
First half
First-half result (Fulham / draw / Crystal Palace)32.4% / 46.4% / 21.2%
A goal in the first half65.9%
Two or more in the first half32.3%
Half-time then full-time
Fulham lead at half-time then Fulham win26.7%
Level at half-time then draw19.4%
Level at half-time then Fulham win16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Fulham's side
Fulham −2.015.5%
Fulham −1.7518.9%
Fulham −1.522.3%
Fulham −1.2527.8%
Fulham −1.033.2%
Fulham −0.7538.6%
Fulham −0.544.0%
Fulham −0.2551.5%
Fulham draw no bet (0.0)59.1%
Fulham +0.2566.6%
Fulham +0.574.2%
Fulham +0.7578.0%
Fulham +1.081.9%
Fulham +1.589.5%
Fulham +2.093.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Fulham win2.27
Draw3.31
Crystal Palace win3.87
Over 2.52.20
Under 2.51.83
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Fulham wins by more than 1 goals22%
Crystal Palace wins by more than 1 goals10%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match41%