Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Galatasaray
77%
Draw
16%
Kocaelispor
7%
Actual result: Galatasaray 1 – 0 Kocaelispor · Galatasaray winJarvis gave this outcome: 77% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Galatasaray, negative favours Kocaelispor) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Galatasaray - Kocaelispor)+1.81
Expected total goals3.02
Expected goals Galatasaray / Kocaelispor2.42 / 0.61
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.7% / 58.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.7%
Over 2.5 goals 58.1%
Over 3.5 goals 35.7%
First half
First-half result (Galatasaray / draw / Kocaelispor)56.6% / 34.5% / 8.9%
A goal in the first half74.0%
Two or more in the first half39.7%
Half-time then full-time
Galatasaray lead at half-time then Galatasaray win53.5%
Level at half-time then Galatasaray win21.4%
Level at half-time then draw10.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Galatasaray's side
Galatasaray −2.043.4%
Galatasaray −1.7549.1%
Galatasaray −1.554.7%
Galatasaray −1.2560.3%
Galatasaray −1.066.0%
Galatasaray −0.7571.6%
Galatasaray −0.577.2%
Galatasaray −0.2581.1%
Galatasaray draw no bet (0.0)85.0%
Galatasaray +0.2588.9%
Galatasaray +0.592.9%
Galatasaray +0.7594.2%
Galatasaray +1.095.6%
Galatasaray +1.598.3%
Galatasaray +2.099.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Galatasaray win1.30
Draw6.39
Kocaelispor win14.00
Over 2.51.72
Under 2.52.39
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Galatasaray wins by more than 1 goals55%
Kocaelispor wins by more than 1 goals2%