Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Georgia
51%
Draw
29%
Northern Ireland
20%
Actual result: Georgia 0 – 1 Northern Ireland · Northern Ireland winJarvis gave this outcome: 20%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Georgia, negative favours Northern Ireland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Georgia - Northern Ireland)+0.63
Expected total goals2.28
Expected goals Georgia / Northern Ireland1.46 / 0.82
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.1% / 55.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 goals 39.9%
Over 3.5 goals 19.7%
First half
First-half result (Georgia / draw / Northern Ireland)36.2% / 46.5% / 17.3%
A goal in the first half63.5%
Two or more in the first half28.1%
Half-time then full-time
Georgia lead at half-time then Georgia win31.1%
Level at half-time then draw19.3%
Level at half-time then Georgia win18.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Georgia's side
Georgia −2.018.3%
Georgia −1.7522.3%
Georgia −1.526.3%
Georgia −1.2532.4%
Georgia −1.038.6%
Georgia −0.7544.8%
Georgia −0.551.0%
Georgia −0.2558.2%
Georgia draw no bet (0.0)65.4%
Georgia +0.2572.6%
Georgia +0.579.8%
Georgia +0.7583.2%
Georgia +1.086.6%
Georgia +1.593.3%
Georgia +2.095.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Georgia win1.96
Draw3.48
Northern Ireland win4.94
Over 2.52.51
Under 2.51.66
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Georgia wins by more than 1 goals26%
Northern Ireland wins by more than 1 goals7%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%