Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Gibraltar
25%
Draw
36%
Andorra
39%
Actual result: Gibraltar 0 – 0 Andorra · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 36%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Gibraltar, negative favours Andorra) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Gibraltar - Andorra)-0.26
Expected total goals1.74
Expected goals Gibraltar / Andorra0.74 / 1.00
Both teams to score (yes / no)34.4% / 65.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 53.3%
Over 2.5 goals 25.4%
Over 3.5 goals 10.0%
First half
First-half result (Gibraltar / draw / Andorra)18.8% / 54.1% / 27.1%
A goal in the first half53.7%
Two or more in the first half19.2%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw26.6%
Andorra lead at half-time then Andorra win22.5%
Level at half-time then Andorra win16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Gibraltar's side
Gibraltar −2.04.8%
Gibraltar −1.756.3%
Gibraltar −1.57.9%
Gibraltar −1.2512.2%
Gibraltar −1.016.5%
Gibraltar −0.7520.8%
Gibraltar −0.525.1%
Gibraltar −0.2534.0%
Gibraltar draw no bet (0.0)42.9%
Gibraltar +0.2551.8%
Gibraltar +0.560.7%
Gibraltar +0.7566.6%
Gibraltar +1.072.5%
Gibraltar +1.584.3%
Gibraltar +2.089.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Gibraltar win3.99
Draw2.81
Andorra win2.54
Over 2.53.93
Under 2.51.34
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Gibraltar wins by more than 1 goals8%
Andorra wins by more than 1 goals16%