Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Goztepe
49%
Draw
29%
Gaziantep FK
22%
Actual result: Goztepe 2 – 4 Gaziantep FK · Gaziantep FK winJarvis gave this outcome: 22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Goztepe, negative favours Gaziantep FK) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Goztepe - Gaziantep FK)+0.59
Expected total goals2.58
Expected goals Goztepe / Gaziantep FK1.59 / 0.99
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.0% / 48.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.8%
Over 2.5 goals 47.7%
Over 3.5 goals 26.0%
First half
First-half result (Goztepe / draw / Gaziantep FK)35.9% / 45.3% / 18.8%
A goal in the first half67.1%
Two or more in the first half33.9%
Half-time then full-time
Goztepe lead at half-time then Goztepe win30.5%
Level at half-time then draw18.5%
Level at half-time then Goztepe win17.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Goztepe's side
Goztepe −2.019.0%
Goztepe −1.7522.9%
Goztepe −1.526.8%
Goztepe −1.2532.4%
Goztepe −1.038.1%
Goztepe −0.7543.7%
Goztepe −0.549.3%
Goztepe −0.2556.5%
Goztepe draw no bet (0.0)63.7%
Goztepe +0.2570.9%
Goztepe +0.578.2%
Goztepe +0.7581.5%
Goztepe +1.084.8%
Goztepe +1.591.5%
Goztepe +2.094.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Goztepe win2.03
Draw3.46
Gaziantep FK win4.58
Over 2.52.10
Under 2.51.91
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Goztepe wins by more than 1 goals27%
Gaziantep FK wins by more than 1 goals8%