Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Greece
27%
Draw
28%
Netherlands
45%
Actual result: Greece 2 – 2 Netherlands · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Greece, negative favours Netherlands) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Greece - Netherlands)-0.40
Expected total goals2.89
Expected goals Greece / Netherlands1.24 / 1.65
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.1% / 40.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.0%
Over 2.5 goals 55.1%
Over 3.5 goals 32.8%
First half
First-half result (Greece / draw / Netherlands)22.9% / 43.0% / 34.1%
A goal in the first half71.1%
Two or more in the first half38.9%
Half-time then full-time
Netherlands lead at half-time then Netherlands win27.8%
Level at half-time then draw16.7%
Greece lead at half-time then Greece win15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Greece's side
Greece −2.08.0%
Greece −1.7510.0%
Greece −1.512.1%
Greece −1.2515.9%
Greece −1.019.7%
Greece −0.7523.5%
Greece −0.527.3%
Greece −0.2534.2%
Greece draw no bet (0.0)41.1%
Greece +0.2548.0%
Greece +0.554.9%
Greece +0.7560.0%
Greece +1.065.2%
Greece +1.575.5%
Greece +2.082.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Greece win3.67
Draw3.63
Netherlands win2.22
Over 2.51.81
Under 2.52.23
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Greece wins by more than 1 goals12%
Netherlands wins by more than 1 goals24%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.1
2.5+ cards in the match60%