Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Gremio
33%
Draw
33%
Internacional
34%
Actual result: Gremio 3 – 1 Internacional · Gremio winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Gremio, negative favours Internacional) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Gremio - Internacional)-0.02
Expected total goals2.18
Expected goals Gremio / Internacional1.08 / 1.10
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.1% / 53.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.1%
Over 2.5 goals 37.3%
Over 3.5 goals 17.7%
First half
First-half result (Gremio / draw / Internacional)24.8% / 49.6% / 25.5%
A goal in the first half61.3%
Two or more in the first half27.1%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw22.4%
Internacional lead at half-time then Internacional win19.9%
Gremio lead at half-time then Gremio win19.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Gremio's side
Gremio −2.09.0%
Gremio −1.7511.4%
Gremio −1.513.8%
Gremio −1.2518.5%
Gremio −1.023.3%
Gremio −0.7528.1%
Gremio −0.532.9%
Gremio −0.2541.1%
Gremio draw no bet (0.0)49.4%
Gremio +0.2557.7%
Gremio +0.566.0%
Gremio +0.7570.8%
Gremio +1.075.7%
Gremio +1.585.5%
Gremio +2.090.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Gremio win3.04
Draw3.02
Internacional win2.94
Over 2.52.68
Under 2.51.59
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Gremio wins by more than 1 goals14%
Internacional wins by more than 1 goals14%