Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Gremio
28%
Draw
32%
Vasco da Gama
40%
Actual result: Gremio 1 – 2 Vasco da Gama · Vasco da Gama winJarvis gave this outcome: 40% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Gremio, negative favours Vasco da Gama) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Gremio - Vasco da Gama)-0.25
Expected total goals2.40
Expected goals Gremio / Vasco da Gama1.08 / 1.32
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.4% / 49.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.2%
Over 2.5 goals 43.0%
Over 3.5 goals 22.1%
First half
First-half result (Gremio / draw / Vasco da Gama)22.5% / 47.7% / 29.8%
A goal in the first half64.4%
Two or more in the first half30.9%
Half-time then full-time
Vasco da Gama lead at half-time then Vasco da Gama win24.1%
Level at half-time then draw20.6%
Gremio lead at half-time then Gremio win16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Gremio's side
Gremio −2.07.6%
Gremio −1.759.7%
Gremio −1.511.7%
Gremio −1.2515.8%
Gremio −1.020.0%
Gremio −0.7524.1%
Gremio −0.528.2%
Gremio −0.2536.1%
Gremio draw no bet (0.0)44.0%
Gremio +0.2551.9%
Gremio +0.559.8%
Gremio +0.7565.0%
Gremio +1.070.2%
Gremio +1.580.6%
Gremio +2.086.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Gremio win3.54
Draw3.17
Vasco da Gama win2.49
Over 2.52.33
Under 2.51.75
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Gremio wins by more than 1 goals12%
Vasco da Gama wins by more than 1 goals19%