Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Guimaraes
66%
Draw
22%
Casa Pia
12%
Actual result: Guimaraes 0 – 0 Casa Pia · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Guimaraes, negative favours Casa Pia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Guimaraes - Casa Pia)+1.20
Expected total goals2.46
Expected goals Guimaraes / Casa Pia1.83 / 0.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)39.7% / 60.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.8%
Over 2.5 goals 44.6%
Over 3.5 goals 23.4%
First half
First-half result (Guimaraes / draw / Casa Pia)46.3% / 41.8% / 11.8%
A goal in the first half66.7%
Two or more in the first half30.7%
Half-time then full-time
Guimaraes lead at half-time then Guimaraes win42.4%
Level at half-time then Guimaraes win21.5%
Level at half-time then draw15.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Guimaraes's side
Guimaraes −2.029.3%
Guimaraes −1.7534.5%
Guimaraes −1.539.6%
Guimaraes −1.2546.2%
Guimaraes −1.052.7%
Guimaraes −0.7559.3%
Guimaraes −0.565.8%
Guimaraes −0.2571.4%
Guimaraes draw no bet (0.0)77.0%
Guimaraes +0.2582.6%
Guimaraes +0.588.2%
Guimaraes +0.7590.4%
Guimaraes +1.092.6%
Guimaraes +1.597.0%
Guimaraes +2.098.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Guimaraes win1.52
Draw4.46
Casa Pia win8.48
Over 2.52.24
Under 2.51.81
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Guimaraes wins by more than 1 goals40%
Casa Pia wins by more than 1 goals3%