Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Hibernian
39%
Draw
28%
Hearts
33%
Actual result: Hibernian 1 – 3 Hearts · Hearts winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Hibernian, negative favours Hearts) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Hibernian - Hearts)+0.11
Expected total goals2.86
Expected goals Hibernian / Hearts1.49 / 1.37
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.3% / 40.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.4%
Over 2.5 goals 54.4%
Over 3.5 goals 32.1%
First half
First-half result (Hibernian / draw / Hearts)29.9% / 43.3% / 26.8%
A goal in the first half70.9%
Two or more in the first half38.3%
Half-time then full-time
Hibernian lead at half-time then Hibernian win23.2%
Hearts lead at half-time then Hearts win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Hibernian's side
Hibernian −2.013.4%
Hibernian −1.7516.4%
Hibernian −1.519.4%
Hibernian −1.2524.2%
Hibernian −1.029.0%
Hibernian −0.7533.7%
Hibernian −0.538.5%
Hibernian −0.2545.6%
Hibernian draw no bet (0.0)52.6%
Hibernian +0.2559.6%
Hibernian +0.566.6%
Hibernian +0.7571.0%
Hibernian +1.075.4%
Hibernian +1.584.2%
Hibernian +2.089.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Hibernian win2.59
Draw3.57
Hearts win2.99
Over 2.51.84
Under 2.52.19
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Hibernian wins by more than 1 goals19%
Hearts wins by more than 1 goals16%
Corners
Expected total corners10.3
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards4.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%