Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Hull
22%
Draw
27%
Aston Villa
51%
Actual result: Hull 0 – 0 Aston Villa · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Hull, negative favours Aston Villa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Hull - Aston Villa)-0.63
Expected total goals2.60
Expected goals Hull / Aston Villa0.99 / 1.62
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.5% / 48.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 goals 48.3%
Over 3.5 goals 26.5%
First half
First-half result (Hull / draw / Aston Villa)19.0% / 43.9% / 37.1%
A goal in the first half68.0%
Two or more in the first half33.7%
Half-time then full-time
Aston Villa lead at half-time then Aston Villa win31.5%
Level at half-time then Aston Villa win17.8%
Level at half-time then draw17.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Hull's side
Hull −2.05.2%
Hull −1.756.7%
Hull −1.58.2%
Hull −1.2511.6%
Hull −1.015.0%
Hull −0.7518.4%
Hull −0.521.8%
Hull −0.2528.7%
Hull draw no bet (0.0)35.5%
Hull +0.2542.3%
Hull +0.549.1%
Hull +0.7554.9%
Hull +1.060.7%
Hull +1.572.3%
Hull +2.080.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Hull win4.58
Draw3.67
Aston Villa win1.96
Over 2.52.07
Under 2.51.93
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Hull wins by more than 1 goals8%
Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals28%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%