Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Hungary
35%
Draw
32%
Ukraine
33%
Actual result: Hungary 0 – 1 Ukraine · Ukraine winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Hungary, negative favours Ukraine) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Hungary - Ukraine)+0.03
Expected total goals2.37
Expected goals Hungary / Ukraine1.20 / 1.17
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.1% / 49.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.4%
Over 2.5 goals 42.1%
Over 3.5 goals 21.4%
First half
First-half result (Hungary / draw / Ukraine)26.4% / 48.0% / 25.6%
A goal in the first half64.0%
Two or more in the first half30.3%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw21.0%
Hungary lead at half-time then Hungary win20.4%
Ukraine lead at half-time then Ukraine win19.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Hungary's side
Hungary −2.010.3%
Hungary −1.7512.9%
Hungary −1.515.6%
Hungary −1.2520.3%
Hungary −1.025.1%
Hungary −0.7529.9%
Hungary −0.534.7%
Hungary −0.2542.7%
Hungary draw no bet (0.0)50.7%
Hungary +0.2558.7%
Hungary +0.566.7%
Hungary +0.7571.3%
Hungary +1.076.0%
Hungary +1.585.3%
Hungary +2.090.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Hungary win2.89
Draw3.12
Ukraine win3.00
Over 2.52.37
Under 2.51.73
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Hungary wins by more than 1 goals16%
Ukraine wins by more than 1 goals15%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match41%