Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Iceland
66%
Draw
22%
Bulgaria
13%
Actual result: Iceland 3 – 0 Bulgaria · Iceland winJarvis gave this outcome: 66% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Iceland, negative favours Bulgaria) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Iceland - Bulgaria)+1.24
Expected total goals2.72
Expected goals Iceland / Bulgaria1.98 / 0.74
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.5% / 54.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.0%
Over 2.5 goals 51.0%
Over 3.5 goals 28.9%
First half
First-half result (Iceland / draw / Bulgaria)47.3% / 39.8% / 12.8%
A goal in the first half70.0%
Two or more in the first half35.0%
Half-time then full-time
Iceland lead at half-time then Iceland win43.1%
Level at half-time then Iceland win20.8%
Level at half-time then draw13.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Iceland's side
Iceland −2.031.0%
Iceland −1.7536.1%
Iceland −1.541.2%
Iceland −1.2547.4%
Iceland −1.053.6%
Iceland −0.7559.8%
Iceland −0.565.9%
Iceland −0.2571.3%
Iceland draw no bet (0.0)76.7%
Iceland +0.2582.1%
Iceland +0.587.5%
Iceland +0.7589.7%
Iceland +1.091.9%
Iceland +1.596.4%
Iceland +2.097.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Iceland win1.52
Draw4.64
Bulgaria win8.00
Over 2.51.96
Under 2.52.04
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Iceland wins by more than 1 goals41%
Bulgaria wins by more than 1 goals4%