Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
India
1%
Draw
3%
Brazil
96%
Actual result: India 0 – 4 Brazil · Brazil winJarvis gave this outcome: 96% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours India, negative favours Brazil) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (India - Brazil)-3.99
Expected total goals4.86
Expected goals India / Brazil0.44 / 4.43
Both teams to score (yes / no)34.7% / 65.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 95.2%
Over 2.5 goals 86.3%
Over 3.5 goals 71.5%
First half
First-half result (India / draw / Brazil)3.8% / 14.3% / 81.9%
A goal in the first half89.7%
Two or more in the first half63.4%
Half-time then full-time
Brazil lead at half-time then Brazil win80.9%
Level at half-time then Brazil win12.4%
India lead at half-time then Brazil win2.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from India's side
India −2.00.1%
India −1.750.1%
India −1.50.2%
India −1.250.4%
India −1.00.7%
India −0.751.0%
India −0.51.2%
India −0.251.9%
India draw no bet (0.0)2.5%
India +0.253.2%
India +0.53.8%
India +0.755.9%
India +1.07.9%
India +1.512.1%
India +2.019.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
India win80.69
Draw38.97
Brazil win1.04
Over 2.51.16
Under 2.57.32
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
India wins by more than 1 goals0%
Brazil wins by more than 1 goals87%