Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Inter
57%
Draw
26%
Napoli
17%
Actual result: Inter 3 – 2 Napoli · Inter winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Inter, negative favours Napoli) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Inter - Napoli)+0.89
Expected total goals2.60
Expected goals Inter / Napoli1.75 / 0.86
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.8% / 51.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.6%
Over 2.5 goals 48.2%
Over 3.5 goals 26.5%
First half
First-half result (Inter / draw / Napoli)41.1% / 43.3% / 15.6%
A goal in the first half67.9%
Two or more in the first half33.8%
Half-time then full-time
Inter lead at half-time then Inter win36.3%
Level at half-time then Inter win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Inter's side
Inter −2.024.1%
Inter −1.7528.6%
Inter −1.533.2%
Inter −1.2539.2%
Inter −1.045.2%
Inter −0.7551.2%
Inter −0.557.2%
Inter −0.2563.7%
Inter draw no bet (0.0)70.2%
Inter +0.2576.7%
Inter +0.583.2%
Inter +0.7586.0%
Inter +1.088.7%
Inter +1.594.3%
Inter +2.096.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Inter win1.75
Draw3.85
Napoli win5.94
Over 2.52.07
Under 2.51.93
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Inter wins by more than 1 goals33%
Napoli wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards12.0
2.5+ cards in the match95%