Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Internacional
38%
Draw
35%
Corinthians
27%
Actual result: Internacional 2 – 1 Corinthians · Internacional winJarvis gave this outcome: 38% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Internacional, negative favours Corinthians) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Internacional - Corinthians)+0.20
Expected total goals1.98
Expected goals Internacional / Corinthians1.09 / 0.89
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.0% / 59.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 60.7%
Over 2.5 goals 31.8%
Over 3.5 goals 13.9%
First half
First-half result (Internacional / draw / Corinthians)27.3% / 51.8% / 20.9%
A goal in the first half57.8%
Two or more in the first half23.5%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw24.4%
Internacional lead at half-time then Internacional win22.2%
Level at half-time then Internacional win15.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Internacional's side
Internacional −2.010.7%
Internacional −1.7513.5%
Internacional −1.516.3%
Internacional −1.2521.7%
Internacional −1.027.2%
Internacional −0.7532.6%
Internacional −0.538.1%
Internacional −0.2546.7%
Internacional draw no bet (0.0)55.4%
Internacional +0.2564.0%
Internacional +0.572.6%
Internacional +0.7577.0%
Internacional +1.081.3%
Internacional +1.590.0%
Internacional +2.093.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Internacional win2.63
Draw2.89
Corinthians win3.65
Over 2.53.15
Under 2.51.47
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Internacional wins by more than 1 goals16%
Corinthians wins by more than 1 goals10%