Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Ipswich
8%
Draw
16%
Arsenal
76%
Actual result: Ipswich 2 – 4 Arsenal · Arsenal winJarvis gave this outcome: 76% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ipswich, negative favours Arsenal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ipswich - Arsenal)-1.78
Expected total goals3.17
Expected goals Ipswich / Arsenal0.69 / 2.47
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.2% / 53.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.8%
Over 2.5 goals 61.3%
Over 3.5 goals 39.0%
First half
First-half result (Ipswich / draw / Arsenal)10.0% / 33.9% / 56.1%
A goal in the first half75.6%
Two or more in the first half42.1%
Half-time then full-time
Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win52.7%
Level at half-time then Arsenal win20.8%
Level at half-time then draw9.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ipswich's side
Ipswich −2.01.3%
Ipswich −1.751.7%
Ipswich −1.52.2%
Ipswich −1.253.7%
Ipswich −1.05.1%
Ipswich −0.756.6%
Ipswich −0.58.1%
Ipswich −0.2512.1%
Ipswich draw no bet (0.0)16.0%
Ipswich +0.2520.0%
Ipswich +0.524.0%
Ipswich +0.7529.5%
Ipswich +1.035.0%
Ipswich +1.546.0%
Ipswich +2.057.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ipswich win12.32
Draw6.31
Arsenal win1.32
Over 2.51.63
Under 2.52.59
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Ipswich wins by more than 1 goals2%
Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals54%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards1.9
2.5+ cards in the match29%