Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Israel
31%
Draw
30%
Kosovo
40%
Actual result: Israel 0 – 0 Kosovo · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Israel, negative favours Kosovo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Israel - Kosovo)-0.19
Expected total goals2.61
Expected goals Israel / Kosovo1.21 / 1.40
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.7% / 45.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.3%
Over 2.5 goals 48.5%
Over 3.5 goals 26.7%
First half
First-half result (Israel / draw / Kosovo)24.6% / 45.4% / 30.0%
A goal in the first half67.7%
Two or more in the first half34.4%
Half-time then full-time
Kosovo lead at half-time then Kosovo win23.8%
Level at half-time then draw18.6%
Israel lead at half-time then Israel win18.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Israel's side
Israel −2.09.1%
Israel −1.7511.3%
Israel −1.513.6%
Israel −1.2517.9%
Israel −1.022.2%
Israel −0.7526.5%
Israel −0.530.8%
Israel −0.2538.2%
Israel draw no bet (0.0)45.6%
Israel +0.2553.1%
Israel +0.560.5%
Israel +0.7565.5%
Israel +1.070.5%
Israel +1.580.5%
Israel +2.086.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Israel win3.25
Draw3.37
Kosovo win2.53
Over 2.52.06
Under 2.51.94
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Israel wins by more than 1 goals14%
Kosovo wins by more than 1 goals19%