Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Israel
35%
Draw
32%
Republic of Ireland
34%
Actual result: Israel 0 – 3 Republic of Ireland · Republic of Ireland winJarvis gave this outcome: 34%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Israel, negative favours Republic of Ireland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Israel - Republic of Ireland)+0.02
Expected total goals2.38
Expected goals Israel / Republic of Ireland1.20 / 1.18
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.4% / 49.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.7%
Over 2.5 goals 42.6%
Over 3.5 goals 21.8%
First half
First-half result (Israel / draw / Republic of Ireland)26.4% / 47.7% / 25.9%
A goal in the first half64.3%
Two or more in the first half30.6%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw20.7%
Israel lead at half-time then Israel win20.3%
Republic of Ireland lead at half-time then Republic of Ireland win19.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Israel's side
Israel −2.010.3%
Israel −1.7512.9%
Israel −1.515.5%
Israel −1.2520.2%
Israel −1.025.0%
Israel −0.7529.8%
Israel −0.534.5%
Israel −0.2542.4%
Israel draw no bet (0.0)50.4%
Israel +0.2558.3%
Israel +0.566.2%
Israel +0.7570.9%
Israel +1.075.6%
Israel +1.585.0%
Israel +2.090.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Israel win2.90
Draw3.15
Republic of Ireland win2.96
Over 2.52.35
Under 2.51.74
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Israel wins by more than 1 goals15%
Republic of Ireland wins by more than 1 goals15%
Corners
Expected total corners8.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards4.2
2.5+ cards in the match42%