Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Italy
43%
Draw
28%
Belgium
29%
Actual result: Italy 0 – 2 Belgium · Belgium winJarvis gave this outcome: 29%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Italy, negative favours Belgium) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Italy - Belgium)+0.32
Expected total goals2.95
Expected goals Italy / Belgium1.64 / 1.31
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.5% / 39.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.0%
Over 2.5 goals 56.5%
Over 3.5 goals 34.1%
First half
First-half result (Italy / draw / Belgium)33.1% / 42.8% / 24.2%
A goal in the first half71.8%
Two or more in the first half40.0%
Half-time then full-time
Italy lead at half-time then Italy win26.6%
Belgium lead at half-time then Belgium win17.1%
Level at half-time then draw16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Italy's side
Italy −2.016.5%
Italy −1.7519.9%
Italy −1.523.3%
Italy −1.2528.3%
Italy −1.033.3%
Italy −0.7538.4%
Italy −0.543.4%
Italy −0.2550.3%
Italy draw no bet (0.0)57.1%
Italy +0.2564.0%
Italy +0.570.9%
Italy +0.7574.8%
Italy +1.078.8%
Italy +1.586.7%
Italy +2.091.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Italy win2.31
Draw3.63
Belgium win3.43
Over 2.51.77
Under 2.52.30
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Italy wins by more than 1 goals23%
Belgium wins by more than 1 goals13%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards3.1
2.5+ cards in the match60%