Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Japan
77%
Draw
15%
Venezuela
8%
Actual result: Japan 2 – 1 Venezuela · Japan winJarvis gave this outcome: 77% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Japan, negative favours Venezuela) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Japan - Venezuela)+1.70
Expected total goals2.85
Expected goals Japan / Venezuela2.27 / 0.58
Both teams to score (yes / no)38.8% / 61.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.1%
Over 2.5 goals 54.3%
Over 3.5 goals 32.0%
First half
First-half result (Japan / draw / Venezuela)55.7% / 34.3% / 10.0%
A goal in the first half72.9%
Two or more in the first half36.1%
Half-time then full-time
Japan lead at half-time then Japan win52.2%
Level at half-time then Japan win21.1%
Level at half-time then draw9.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Japan's side
Japan −2.040.7%
Japan −1.7546.4%
Japan −1.552.1%
Japan −1.2558.2%
Japan −1.064.3%
Japan −0.7570.4%
Japan −0.576.6%
Japan −0.2580.3%
Japan draw no bet (0.0)84.0%
Japan +0.2587.8%
Japan +0.591.5%
Japan +0.7593.2%
Japan +1.094.9%
Japan +1.598.2%
Japan +2.099.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Japan win1.31
Draw6.69
Venezuela win11.80
Over 2.51.84
Under 2.52.19
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Japan wins by more than 1 goals52%
Venezuela wins by more than 1 goals2%