Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Juventus
84%
Draw
11%
NEC Nijmegen
5%
Actual result: Juventus 5 – 0 NEC Nijmegen · Juventus winJarvis gave this outcome: 84% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Juventus, negative favours NEC Nijmegen) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Juventus - NEC Nijmegen)+2.32
Expected total goals3.55
Expected goals Juventus / NEC Nijmegen2.94 / 0.62
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.5% / 56.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.9%
Over 2.5 goals 68.9%
Over 3.5 goals 47.5%
First half
First-half result (Juventus / draw / NEC Nijmegen)64.1% / 28.2% / 7.7%
A goal in the first half79.8%
Two or more in the first half47.4%
Half-time then full-time
Juventus lead at half-time then Juventus win61.5%
Level at half-time then Juventus win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw6.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Juventus's side
Juventus −2.054.5%
Juventus −1.7559.9%
Juventus −1.565.3%
Juventus −1.2570.0%
Juventus −1.074.7%
Juventus −0.7579.4%
Juventus −0.584.0%
Juventus −0.2586.8%
Juventus draw no bet (0.0)89.5%
Juventus +0.2592.2%
Juventus +0.594.9%
Juventus +0.7595.9%
Juventus +1.096.9%
Juventus +1.598.8%
Juventus +2.099.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Juventus win1.19
Draw9.22
NEC Nijmegen win19.60
Over 2.51.45
Under 2.53.21
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Juventus wins by more than 1 goals65%
NEC Nijmegen wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards2.3
2.5+ cards in the match40%