Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Kalmar FF
18%
Draw
24%
Djurgardens
57%
Actual result: Kalmar FF 0 – 1 Djurgardens · Djurgardens winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Kalmar FF, negative favours Djurgardens) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Kalmar FF - Djurgardens)-0.88
Expected total goals2.79
Expected goals Kalmar FF / Djurgardens0.95 / 1.84
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.6% / 47.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.6%
Over 2.5 goals 52.8%
Over 3.5 goals 30.6%
First half
First-half result (Kalmar FF / draw / Djurgardens)17.0% / 41.3% / 41.7%
A goal in the first half70.6%
Two or more in the first half36.6%
Half-time then full-time
Djurgardens lead at half-time then Djurgardens win36.4%
Level at half-time then Djurgardens win18.9%
Level at half-time then draw15.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Kalmar FF's side
Kalmar FF −2.04.1%
Kalmar FF −1.755.3%
Kalmar FF −1.56.5%
Kalmar FF −1.259.5%
Kalmar FF −1.012.4%
Kalmar FF −0.7515.4%
Kalmar FF −0.518.3%
Kalmar FF −0.2524.4%
Kalmar FF draw no bet (0.0)30.5%
Kalmar FF +0.2536.7%
Kalmar FF +0.542.8%
Kalmar FF +0.7548.7%
Kalmar FF +1.054.6%
Kalmar FF +1.566.4%
Kalmar FF +2.075.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Kalmar FF win5.46
Draw4.09
Djurgardens win1.75
Over 2.51.89
Under 2.52.12
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Kalmar FF wins by more than 1 goals7%
Djurgardens wins by more than 1 goals34%