Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Kazakhstan
37%
Draw
33%
Faroe Islands
29%
Actual result: Kazakhstan 2 – 2 Faroe Islands · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Kazakhstan, negative favours Faroe Islands) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Kazakhstan - Faroe Islands)+0.15
Expected total goals2.11
Expected goals Kazakhstan / Faroe Islands1.13 / 0.98
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.0% / 56.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 64.0%
Over 2.5 goals 35.2%
Over 3.5 goals 16.2%
First half
First-half result (Kazakhstan / draw / Faroe Islands)27.2% / 50.3% / 22.6%
A goal in the first half60.1%
Two or more in the first half25.7%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw22.9%
Kazakhstan lead at half-time then Kazakhstan win21.7%
Faroe Islands lead at half-time then Faroe Islands win16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Kazakhstan's side
Kazakhstan −2.010.6%
Kazakhstan −1.7513.3%
Kazakhstan −1.516.1%
Kazakhstan −1.2521.3%
Kazakhstan −1.026.6%
Kazakhstan −0.7531.9%
Kazakhstan −0.537.1%
Kazakhstan −0.2545.5%
Kazakhstan draw no bet (0.0)53.8%
Kazakhstan +0.2562.2%
Kazakhstan +0.570.5%
Kazakhstan +0.7575.0%
Kazakhstan +1.079.5%
Kazakhstan +1.588.5%
Kazakhstan +2.092.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Kazakhstan win2.70
Draw2.99
Faroe Islands win3.39
Over 2.52.84
Under 2.51.54
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Kazakhstan wins by more than 1 goals16%
Faroe Islands wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%