Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Kocaelispor
37%
Draw
34%
Samsunspor
29%
Actual result: Kocaelispor 1 – 0 Samsunspor · Kocaelispor winJarvis gave this outcome: 37% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Kocaelispor, negative favours Samsunspor) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Kocaelispor - Samsunspor)+0.15
Expected total goals2.13
Expected goals Kocaelispor / Samsunspor1.14 / 0.99
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.8% / 55.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 64.8%
Over 2.5 goals 35.9%
Over 3.5 goals 16.7%
First half
First-half result (Kocaelispor / draw / Samsunspor)27.2% / 50.3% / 22.6%
A goal in the first half60.3%
Two or more in the first half26.2%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw23.0%
Kocaelispor lead at half-time then Kocaelispor win21.7%
Samsunspor lead at half-time then Samsunspor win16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Kocaelispor's side
Kocaelispor −2.010.7%
Kocaelispor −1.7513.5%
Kocaelispor −1.516.2%
Kocaelispor −1.2521.4%
Kocaelispor −1.026.6%
Kocaelispor −0.7531.8%
Kocaelispor −0.537.0%
Kocaelispor −0.2545.4%
Kocaelispor draw no bet (0.0)53.8%
Kocaelispor +0.2562.2%
Kocaelispor +0.570.6%
Kocaelispor +0.7575.1%
Kocaelispor +1.079.5%
Kocaelispor +1.588.4%
Kocaelispor +2.092.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Kocaelispor win2.70
Draw2.98
Samsunspor win3.40
Over 2.52.79
Under 2.51.56
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Kocaelispor wins by more than 1 goals16%
Samsunspor wins by more than 1 goals12%