Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Kristiansund
25%
Draw
28%
Tromso
48%
Actual result: Kristiansund 2 – 0 Tromso · Kristiansund winJarvis gave this outcome: 25%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Kristiansund, negative favours Tromso) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Kristiansund - Tromso)-0.51
Expected total goals2.75
Expected goals Kristiansund / Tromso1.12 / 1.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.9% / 44.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.7%
Over 2.5 goals 51.9%
Over 3.5 goals 29.8%
First half
First-half result (Kristiansund / draw / Tromso)21.0% / 43.8% / 35.3%
A goal in the first half69.5%
Two or more in the first half36.7%
Half-time then full-time
Tromso lead at half-time then Tromso win29.4%
Level at half-time then draw17.2%
Level at half-time then Tromso win16.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Kristiansund's side
Kristiansund −2.06.6%
Kristiansund −1.758.4%
Kristiansund −1.510.2%
Kristiansund −1.2513.8%
Kristiansund −1.017.4%
Kristiansund −0.7521.0%
Kristiansund −0.524.6%
Kristiansund −0.2531.6%
Kristiansund draw no bet (0.0)38.5%
Kristiansund +0.2545.5%
Kristiansund +0.552.5%
Kristiansund +0.7557.9%
Kristiansund +1.063.3%
Kristiansund +1.574.1%
Kristiansund +2.081.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Kristiansund win4.07
Draw3.59
Tromso win2.10
Over 2.51.93
Under 2.52.08
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Kristiansund wins by more than 1 goals10%
Tromso wins by more than 1 goals26%