Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Las Palmas
48%
Draw
31%
Burgos
21%
Actual result: Las Palmas 1 – 2 Burgos · Burgos winJarvis gave this outcome: 21%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Las Palmas, negative favours Burgos) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Las Palmas - Burgos)+0.55
Expected total goals2.26
Expected goals Las Palmas / Burgos1.40 / 0.85
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.0% / 55.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.6%
Over 2.5 goals 39.2%
Over 3.5 goals 19.2%
First half
First-half result (Las Palmas / draw / Burgos)34.3% / 48.0% / 17.7%
A goal in the first half62.5%
Two or more in the first half28.2%
Half-time then full-time
Las Palmas lead at half-time then Las Palmas win29.3%
Level at half-time then draw20.8%
Level at half-time then Las Palmas win18.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Las Palmas's side
Las Palmas −2.016.9%
Las Palmas −1.7520.7%
Las Palmas −1.524.5%
Las Palmas −1.2530.4%
Las Palmas −1.036.3%
Las Palmas −0.7542.2%
Las Palmas −0.548.2%
Las Palmas −0.2555.9%
Las Palmas draw no bet (0.0)63.6%
Las Palmas +0.2571.3%
Las Palmas +0.579.0%
Las Palmas +0.7582.4%
Las Palmas +1.085.8%
Las Palmas +1.592.7%
Las Palmas +2.095.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Las Palmas win2.08
Draw3.25
Burgos win4.76
Over 2.52.55
Under 2.51.65
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Las Palmas wins by more than 1 goals24%
Burgos wins by more than 1 goals7%