Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lazio
25%
Draw
32%
AC Milan
43%
Actual result: Lazio 2 – 2 AC Milan · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lazio, negative favours AC Milan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lazio - AC Milan)-0.36
Expected total goals2.19
Expected goals Lazio / AC Milan0.91 / 1.27
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.6% / 55.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 65.7%
Over 2.5 goals 37.3%
Over 3.5 goals 17.8%
First half
First-half result (Lazio / draw / AC Milan)20.2% / 48.7% / 31.1%
A goal in the first half61.6%
Two or more in the first half26.8%
Half-time then full-time
AC Milan lead at half-time then AC Milan win25.8%
Level at half-time then draw21.4%
Level at half-time then AC Milan win16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lazio's side
Lazio −2.05.8%
Lazio −1.757.5%
Lazio −1.59.2%
Lazio −1.2513.2%
Lazio −1.017.2%
Lazio −0.7521.2%
Lazio −0.525.2%
Lazio −0.2533.1%
Lazio draw no bet (0.0)41.0%
Lazio +0.2548.9%
Lazio +0.556.8%
Lazio +0.7562.5%
Lazio +1.068.2%
Lazio +1.579.7%
Lazio +2.086.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lazio win3.97
Draw3.16
AC Milan win2.31
Over 2.52.68
Under 2.51.60
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lazio wins by more than 1 goals9%
AC Milan wins by more than 1 goals20%
Corners
Expected total corners8.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%