Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lens
62%
Draw
22%
Lorient
15%
Actual result: Lens 0 – 1 Lorient · Lorient winJarvis gave this outcome: 15%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lens, negative favours Lorient) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lens - Lorient)+1.09
Expected total goals2.86
Expected goals Lens / Lorient1.98 / 0.88
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.2% / 48.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.5%
Over 2.5 goals 54.4%
Over 3.5 goals 32.1%
First half
First-half result (Lens / draw / Lorient)45.2% / 39.6% / 15.2%
A goal in the first half71.7%
Two or more in the first half37.5%
Half-time then full-time
Lens lead at half-time then Lens win40.3%
Level at half-time then Lens win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw13.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lens's side
Lens −2.028.7%
Lens −1.7533.5%
Lens −1.538.3%
Lens −1.2544.3%
Lens −1.050.3%
Lens −0.7556.2%
Lens −0.562.2%
Lens −0.2567.8%
Lens draw no bet (0.0)73.4%
Lens +0.2579.0%
Lens +0.584.6%
Lens +0.7587.2%
Lens +1.089.7%
Lens +1.594.9%
Lens +2.096.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lens win1.61
Draw4.47
Lorient win6.49
Over 2.51.84
Under 2.52.20
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lens wins by more than 1 goals38%
Lorient wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%