Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Liechtenstein
24%
Draw
35%
Gibraltar
41%
Actual result: Liechtenstein 0 – 2 Gibraltar · Gibraltar winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Liechtenstein, negative favours Gibraltar) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Liechtenstein - Gibraltar)-0.32
Expected total goals1.79
Expected goals Liechtenstein / Gibraltar0.73 / 1.05
Both teams to score (yes / no)35.2% / 64.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 54.6%
Over 2.5 goals 26.6%
Over 3.5 goals 10.7%
First half
First-half result (Liechtenstein / draw / Gibraltar)18.1% / 53.4% / 28.5%
A goal in the first half54.6%
Two or more in the first half20.0%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw25.9%
Gibraltar lead at half-time then Gibraltar win23.9%
Level at half-time then Gibraltar win17.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Liechtenstein's side
Liechtenstein −2.04.5%
Liechtenstein −1.755.9%
Liechtenstein −1.57.4%
Liechtenstein −1.2511.5%
Liechtenstein −1.015.6%
Liechtenstein −0.7519.7%
Liechtenstein −0.523.8%
Liechtenstein −0.2532.5%
Liechtenstein draw no bet (0.0)41.3%
Liechtenstein +0.2550.0%
Liechtenstein +0.558.8%
Liechtenstein +0.7564.8%
Liechtenstein +1.070.8%
Liechtenstein +1.582.9%
Liechtenstein +2.088.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Liechtenstein win4.21
Draw2.86
Gibraltar win2.42
Over 2.53.76
Under 2.51.36
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Liechtenstein wins by more than 1 goals7%
Gibraltar wins by more than 1 goals17%