Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Liechtenstein
4%
Draw
17%
Lithuania
79%
Actual result: Liechtenstein 0 – 2 Lithuania · Lithuania winJarvis gave this outcome: 79% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Liechtenstein, negative favours Lithuania) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Liechtenstein - Lithuania)-1.66
Expected total goals2.16
Expected goals Liechtenstein / Lithuania0.25 / 1.91
Both teams to score (yes / no)18.3% / 81.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 63.2%
Over 2.5 goals 36.6%
Over 3.5 goals 17.2%
First half
First-half result (Liechtenstein / draw / Lithuania)4.8% / 41.2% / 54.0%
A goal in the first half62.3%
Two or more in the first half25.1%
Half-time then full-time
Lithuania lead at half-time then Lithuania win52.2%
Level at half-time then Lithuania win24.9%
Level at half-time then draw14.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Liechtenstein's side
Liechtenstein −2.00.2%
Liechtenstein −1.750.3%
Liechtenstein −1.50.4%
Liechtenstein −1.251.4%
Liechtenstein −1.02.4%
Liechtenstein −0.753.3%
Liechtenstein −0.54.3%
Liechtenstein −0.258.6%
Liechtenstein draw no bet (0.0)12.9%
Liechtenstein +0.2517.1%
Liechtenstein +0.521.4%
Liechtenstein +0.7528.4%
Liechtenstein +1.035.4%
Liechtenstein +1.549.4%
Liechtenstein +2.061.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Liechtenstein win23.23
Draw5.85
Lithuania win1.27
Over 2.52.73
Under 2.51.58
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Liechtenstein wins by more than 1 goals0%
Lithuania wins by more than 1 goals51%