Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lillestrom
58%
Draw
24%
Torreense
18%
Actual result: Lillestrom 1 – 2 Torreense · Torreense winJarvis gave this outcome: 18%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lillestrom, negative favours Torreense) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lillestrom - Torreense)+0.92
Expected total goals2.91
Expected goals Lillestrom / Torreense1.91 / 0.99
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.6% / 45.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.6%
Over 2.5 goals 55.5%
Over 3.5 goals 33.2%
First half
First-half result (Lillestrom / draw / Torreense)42.4% / 40.5% / 17.2%
A goal in the first half72.0%
Two or more in the first half38.6%
Half-time then full-time
Lillestrom lead at half-time then Lillestrom win37.0%
Level at half-time then Lillestrom win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw14.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lillestrom's side
Lillestrom −2.025.7%
Lillestrom −1.7530.2%
Lillestrom −1.534.7%
Lillestrom −1.2540.5%
Lillestrom −1.046.3%
Lillestrom −0.7552.1%
Lillestrom −0.557.9%
Lillestrom −0.2563.8%
Lillestrom draw no bet (0.0)69.8%
Lillestrom +0.2575.8%
Lillestrom +0.581.8%
Lillestrom +0.7584.7%
Lillestrom +1.087.6%
Lillestrom +1.593.3%
Lillestrom +2.095.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lillestrom win1.73
Draw4.18
Torreense win5.49
Over 2.51.80
Under 2.52.25
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lillestrom wins by more than 1 goals35%
Torreense wins by more than 1 goals7%