Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lincoln
23%
Draw
24%
Southampton
54%
Actual result: Lincoln 1 – 1 Southampton · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lincoln, negative favours Southampton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lincoln - Southampton)-0.71
Expected total goals2.90
Expected goals Lincoln / Southampton1.09 / 1.81
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.8% / 44.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.8%
Over 2.5 goals 55.4%
Over 3.5 goals 33.0%
First half
First-half result (Lincoln / draw / Southampton)20.4% / 39.6% / 40.0%
A goal in the first half72.6%
Two or more in the first half37.8%
Half-time then full-time
Southampton lead at half-time then Southampton win33.8%
Level at half-time then Southampton win17.3%
Level at half-time then draw13.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lincoln's side
Lincoln −2.05.6%
Lincoln −1.757.1%
Lincoln −1.58.6%
Lincoln −1.2512.1%
Lincoln −1.015.6%
Lincoln −0.7519.1%
Lincoln −0.522.6%
Lincoln −0.2528.5%
Lincoln draw no bet (0.0)34.4%
Lincoln +0.2540.3%
Lincoln +0.546.2%
Lincoln +0.7552.0%
Lincoln +1.057.9%
Lincoln +1.569.5%
Lincoln +2.077.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lincoln win4.42
Draw4.24
Southampton win1.86
Over 2.51.80
Under 2.52.24
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lincoln wins by more than 1 goals9%
Southampton wins by more than 1 goals30%