Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lithuania
59%
Draw
28%
Andorra
13%
Actual result: Lithuania 3 – 0 Andorra · Lithuania winJarvis gave this outcome: 59% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lithuania, negative favours Andorra) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lithuania - Andorra)+0.91
Expected total goals2.01
Expected goals Lithuania / Andorra1.46 / 0.55
Both teams to score (yes / no)32.9% / 67.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 60.1%
Over 2.5 goals 32.5%
Over 3.5 goals 14.4%
First half
First-half result (Lithuania / draw / Andorra)40.1% / 48.0% / 11.9%
A goal in the first half59.1%
Two or more in the first half23.2%
Half-time then full-time
Lithuania lead at half-time then Lithuania win36.3%
Level at half-time then Lithuania win21.6%
Level at half-time then draw20.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lithuania's side
Lithuania −2.021.8%
Lithuania −1.7526.5%
Lithuania −1.531.1%
Lithuania −1.2538.1%
Lithuania −1.045.1%
Lithuania −0.7552.1%
Lithuania −0.559.1%
Lithuania −0.2566.0%
Lithuania draw no bet (0.0)72.9%
Lithuania +0.2579.8%
Lithuania +0.586.7%
Lithuania +0.7589.3%
Lithuania +1.091.8%
Lithuania +1.596.9%
Lithuania +2.098.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lithuania win1.69
Draw3.62
Andorra win7.54
Over 2.53.07
Under 2.51.48
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lithuania wins by more than 1 goals31%
Andorra wins by more than 1 goals3%