Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Liverpool
57%
Draw
24%
Tottenham
20%
Actual result: Liverpool 3 – 1 Tottenham · Liverpool winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Liverpool, negative favours Tottenham) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Liverpool - Tottenham)+0.90
Expected total goals3.23
Expected goals Liverpool / Tottenham2.06 / 1.16
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.4% / 38.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.6%
Over 2.5 goals 62.6%
Over 3.5 goals 40.4%
First half
First-half result (Liverpool / draw / Tottenham)42.2% / 39.5% / 18.3%
A goal in the first half75.0%
Two or more in the first half44.3%
Half-time then full-time
Liverpool lead at half-time then Liverpool win36.6%
Level at half-time then Liverpool win18.1%
Level at half-time then draw13.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Liverpool's side
Liverpool −2.026.5%
Liverpool −1.7530.9%
Liverpool −1.535.3%
Liverpool −1.2540.6%
Liverpool −1.046.0%
Liverpool −0.7551.4%
Liverpool −0.556.7%
Liverpool −0.2562.7%
Liverpool draw no bet (0.0)68.6%
Liverpool +0.2574.5%
Liverpool +0.580.5%
Liverpool +0.7583.3%
Liverpool +1.086.2%
Liverpool +1.592.0%
Liverpool +2.094.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Liverpool win1.76
Draw4.22
Tottenham win5.12
Over 2.51.60
Under 2.52.67
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Liverpool wins by more than 1 goals35%
Tottenham wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners10.3
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards2.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%