Outcome probability
Jarvis prediction from BEFORE kickoff. The match has finished but we have not verified the score yet, so there is no comparison below.
Result not verified
Lugano
46%
Draw
25%
Young Boys
29%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lugano, negative favours Young Boys) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lugano - Young Boys)+0.40
Expected total goals3.50
Expected goals Lugano / Young Boys1.95 / 1.55
Both teams to score (yes / no)69.0% / 31.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 87.8%
Over 2.5 goals 67.9%
Over 3.5 goals 46.3%
First half
First-half result (Lugano / draw / Young Boys)35.4% / 39.5% / 25.1%
A goal in the first half77.2%
Two or more in the first half48.7%
Half-time then full-time
Lugano lead at half-time then Lugano win28.5%
Young Boys lead at half-time then Young Boys win17.4%
Level at half-time then Lugano win15.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lugano's side
Lugano −2.019.5%
Lugano −1.7523.1%
Lugano −1.526.6%
Lugano −1.2531.4%
Lugano −1.036.2%
Lugano −0.7541.0%
Lugano −0.545.7%
Lugano −0.2551.9%
Lugano draw no bet (0.0)58.1%
Lugano +0.2564.3%
Lugano +0.570.5%
Lugano +0.7574.3%
Lugano +1.078.0%
Lugano +1.585.5%
Lugano +2.089.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lugano win2.19
Draw4.03
Young Boys win3.40
Over 2.51.47
Under 2.53.11
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lugano wins by more than 1 goals27%
Young Boys wins by more than 1 goals15%